Just off the bat I have to say that I am not a huge fan of the formats of Presidential debates. I feel that the candidates do not have enough time to thoroughly explain their stances on issues and are forced to use too many media friendly sound byte cliches like "Trying to save Wall Street to help Main Street" instead of offering a cogent analysis on how they really feel on a political issue or how they would confront a situation as President.
I believe Markos Moulitsas' post "My reaction" on his website Daily Kos is pretty much in line with how I feel the debate went. Kos writes:
"And given where McCain is in the polls (lagging and getting worse), this wasn't what he needed tonight.
And given that the status quo probably remains, in a debate that was supposed to focus more on McCain's "strength" (national security), Obama wins."
I do not believe McCain's poll position is quite as dire as Moulitsas is making it out to be, but I think his point about Obama winning because McCain should have done better in a debate over foreign affairs is a solid one. I do not think either candidate really made any huge errors or anything to establish a clear victor. Performance wise I would grade them about the same, but give Obama a slight victory just because foreign policy is supposedly McCain's strongest area and Obama was able to hang right with him. I think McCain tried to attack Obama's personal traits a few too many times instead of trying to clarify his own positions.
I was actually pretty surprised how close McCain and Obama are politically on a number of issues. Their disagreements over Iraq notwithstanding, they both agreed with the buyout plan. They both agreed we should eliminate our dependency on foreign oil. They both do not want to increase taxes for people making less then 250,000$. They both distrust Vladimir Putin and Russia. They both don't think the President should meet with Iran's leaders without pre-conditions. Of course, they both tried to make it sound like they had disagreements on those issues, but fundamentally their opinions weren't that far apart from each other. I think this just goes to show that both candidates are closer to the center then the media make them out to be.
Obama's victory aside, I do not feel that the debate really did anything to sway people's opinions really will not make a huge difference to one side or another. Most people choose who they will be voting for some point on October. Right now they are just getting to know the candidates and I can't imagine there was anything significant enough in the first debate to make an undecided voter lean in one direction or another. Debate performance tends to be overrated in terms of impact on a race. Most people would agree that Al Gore and John Kerry out-performed President Bush in the 2000 and 2004 debates, however Bush was able to overcome his debate performances and win his elections thanks to an otherwise strong campaign. I think the Vice-Presidential debate will be important for introducing Sarah Palin to a national audience. It will be fun to watch, but probably not too important because most people vote for the top of the ticket. Vice-Presidents are important, but they aren't calling all the shots.
This is election is going to be a close battle. Debate performances notwithstanding, I feel that the eventual winner will be whoever is able to generate the most excitement and buzz about their campaign in early November. Whichever candidate is able to establish the most late momentum will become the next president.
2 comments:
I lean towards what you said about the debate, that it was a way for people to know the candidates and not necessary to influence their decision. I believe also that there wasn't any victory, but it was more like a tie to me. I would have liked to see both candidates more precise, clear when speaking, both seemed to me that were taking a very long way to get to the point. I think that also that "battle of the bracelets" was a little bit unnecessary. As far as the VicePresidential debate, that to me was more "live" if I can say; I liked that Biden was actually addressing and answering the questions. What do you think about the VP debate?
John,
I think you made some interesting points about the presidental debate. I agree that Obama had a slight lead over McCain after the debate because he did not go off of his strenghs of national security. I think he was taking a defensive strategy rather than an offensive strategy and that hurt him alittle. I really feel this presidential debate was interesting though because of the fact that you mentioned Kerry and Al Gore winning the debates against Bush in the past two elections. So, it should be interesting to see how this debate plays out in the media as the election comes closer.
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